Spread: South Alabama (-3.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold South Alabama (78%) · South Alabama at 77¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 15

South Alabama77¢Troy23¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Alabama

Consensus Traders

South Alabama 78%

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

-$131.04

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 77¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Alabama at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Alabama

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Alabama77%

Troy23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Alabama7 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares25,171

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Troy2 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares23,084

Combined PnL$-2.4K

South Alabama — 78%Troy — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Alabama 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSouth Alabama 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSouth Alabama 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000South Alabama 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	South Alabamaavg 64¢	$14.2K	$16.1K	+$1.9K	52% 2662-2493 (5155)
PR primmCTR	Troyavg 36¢	$8.0K	$5.8K	$-2.2K	59% 1044-726 (1770)
38 38791873984189	South Alabamaavg 61.2¢	$761.82	$921.72	+$159.89	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
RN1	South Alabamaavg 64¢	$650.68	$752.35	+$101.67	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Troyavg 55¢	$474.14	$310.35	-$163.79	46% 189-223 (412)
PA Pan9X	South Alabamaavg 59.5¢	$138.68	$172.41	+$33.73	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
TO topdogbigboi	South Alabamaavg 62¢	$137.02	$163.54	+$26.52	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	South Alabamaavg 45¢	$94.95	$135.04	+$40.09	49% 389-413 (802)
VeryLucky888<$100	South Alabamaavg 45¢	$9.9	$14.08	+$4.18	54% 1641-1409 (3050)

CUTJALENHURTS

South Alabama

Invested

$14,222.21

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

2662-2493 (5155)

primmCTR

Troy

Invested

$7,999.99

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

38791873984189

South Alabama

Invested

$761.82

Value

$921.72

PnL

+$159.89

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

RN1

South Alabama

Invested

$650.68

Value

$752.35

PnL

+$101.67

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

glennyorkshireCTR

Troy

Invested

$474.14

Value

$310.35

PnL

-$163.79

Record

46%

189-223 (412)

Pan9X

South Alabama

Invested

$138.68

Value

$172.41

PnL

+$33.73

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

topdogbigboi

South Alabama

Invested

$137.02

Value

$163.54

PnL

+$26.52

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

South Alabama

Invested

$94.95

Value

$135.04

PnL

+$40.09

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

VeryLucky888<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$9.9

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$4.18

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralSouth Alabama at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

South Alabama

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Alabama 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSouth Alabama 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSouth Alabama 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000South Alabama 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.