Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 59.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 43¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
$2.3K
$91.82
41.2¢ → 43¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$97.57 | 52% 5751-5327 (11078) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Underavg 42¢ | $110.67 | $113.31 | +$2.64 | 54% 1195-1008 (2203) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $67.08 | $58.7 | -$8.38 | 50% 3766-3742 (7508) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.