Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 55.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$101.1
Research grade
NeutralOver at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Overavg 57¢ | $694.96 | $792.35 | +$97.39 | 46% 1041-1242 (2283) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $250.11 | $206.59 | -$43.52 | — |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 65¢ | $117 | $117 | +$0 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $133.11 | $89.59 | -$43.52 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $9.29 | $13 | +$3.71 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.