Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (75%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 53.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 26¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29

Over75¢Under25¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$26.31

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 25.5¢

-50% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over75%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,939

Combined PnL+$26.51

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.95

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.2

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 56¢	$686.16	$673.26	-$12.9	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 54¢	$319.68	$361.12	+$41.44	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$349.65	$342.43	-$7.22	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.1¢	$176.87	$252.54	+$75.67
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.9¢	$172.78	$89.89	-$82.88
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Underavg 42¢	$243.64	$234.94	-$8.7	—
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$60.5	$67.1	+$6.6	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$7.98	$8.54	+$0.56	54% 2951-2534 (5485)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40.9¢	$7.15	$4.53	-$0.48	57% 13390-10234 (23624)
PR primm<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.95	-$0.2	46% 1041-1242 (2283)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$686.16

Value

$673.26

PnL

-$12.9

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$319.68

Value

$361.12

PnL

+$41.44

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$349.65

Value

$342.43

PnL

-$7.22

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

Over$176.8751.1¢+$75.67

Under$172.7851.9¢-$82.88

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Under

Invested

$243.64

Value

$234.94

PnL

-$8.7

Record

—

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.5

Value

$67.1

PnL

+$6.6

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.98

Value

$8.54

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

2951-2534 (5485)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.15

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.48

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

primm<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

1041-1242 (2283)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.