Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 51.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 18¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$125.77
47.4¢ → 18¢
-62% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pltrkr111CTR | Underavg 50.9¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$1.36 | 54% 726-610 (1336) |
 heyboy800 | Overavg 54¢ | $539.99 | $574.99 | +$35 | 61% 905-571 (1476) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Underavg 43¢ | $699.97 | $537.18 | -$162.78 | 54% 1193-1008 (2201) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $190.22 | $186.87 | -$3.35 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 27¢ | $156.4 | $145 | -$11.4 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 60.6¢ | $33.82 | $41.87 | +$8.05 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $52.92 | $52.92 | +$0 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $19.89 | $19.89 | +$0 | 54% 2951-2534 (5485) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $4.08 | $4.73 | +$0.65 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.36
Record
54%
726-610 (1336)
heyboy800Invested
$539.99
Value
$574.99
PnL
+$35
Record
61%
905-571 (1476)
Invested
$699.97
Value
$537.18
PnL
-$162.78
Record
54%
1193-1008 (2201)
Invested
$190.22
Value
$186.87
PnL
-$3.35
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.92
Value
$52.92
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.89
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2951-2534 (5485)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.65
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.