Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 49.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 45¢ · $995 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$994.64
$25.36
46.9¢ → 45¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 46.8¢ | $580.74 | $601.76 | +$21.02 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $138.85 | $143.23 | +$4.37 | 54% 17004-14250 (31254) |
MO mooseborzoii | Overavg 51.8¢ | $105.69 | $105.06 | -$0.63 | 50% 1179-1173 (2352) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.7¢ | $77.69 | $79.05 | +$1.36 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
TO tomb2456<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $35.53 | $36.18 | +$0.66 | 51% 288-281 (569) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $30.78 | $29.36 | -$1.43 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$580.74
Value
$601.76
PnL
+$21.02
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$138.85
Value
$143.23
PnL
+$4.37
Record
54%
17004-14250 (31254)
Invested
$105.69
Value
$105.06
PnL
-$0.63
Record
50%
1179-1173 (2352)
Invested
$77.69
Value
$79.05
PnL
+$1.36
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$35.53
Value
$36.18
PnL
+$0.66
Record
51%
288-281 (569)
Invested
$30.78
Value
$29.36
PnL
-$1.43
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.