Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold James Madison, while the market favors Troy (50%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: James Madison (-6.5)
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
1
James Madison 100%
2 arb excluded
$903.15
$71.55
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Troy 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Troyavg 52.4¢ | $745.01 | $470.96 | +$612.65 | — |
| └ James Madison leg | James Madisonavg 13.5¢ | $95.6 | $350.44 | +$254.84 | |
| └ Troy leg | Troyavg 52.4¢ | $125.27 | $120.52 | +$357.81 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | James Madisonavg 38.4¢ | $245.71 | $317.26 | +$71.55 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Troyavg 46.2¢ | $80.23 | $114.93 | +$34.7 | — |
| └ Troy leg | Troyavg 46.2¢ | $57.11 | $62.29 | +$5.17 | |
| └ James Madison leg | James Madisonavg 21.8¢ | $23.12 | $52.64 | +$29.52 |
Invested
$745.01
Value
$470.96
PnL
+$612.65
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$245.71
Value
$317.26
PnL
+$71.55
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Invested
$80.23
Value
$114.93
PnL
+$34.7
Record
—
Both legs:
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.