Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold James Madison, while the market favors Troy (98%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: James Madison (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (40%) · James Madison at 1.6¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
James Madison
5
James Madison 40%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$350.67
51.9¢ → 1.6¢
-97% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidJames Madison at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Troy 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35CTR | James Madisonavg 51.3¢ | $520.6 | $872.75 | +$352.14 | 53% 49-44 (93) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | James Madisonavg 37.1¢ | $767.24 | $626.83 | -$140.41 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
| └ Troy leg | Troyavg 76.4¢ | $331.13 | $320.11 | -$11.02 | |
| └ James Madison leg | James Madisonavg 37.1¢ | $436.11 | $306.73 | -$129.39 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Troyavg 55.4¢ | $1.0K | $438.73 | -$355.88 | — |
| └ James Madison leg | James Madisonavg 60.8¢ | $197.54 | $279.39 | +$76.45 | |
| └ Troy leg | Troyavg 55.4¢ | $630.95 | $159.34 | -$432.33 | |
TO topdogbigboi | Troyavg 44.9¢ | $98.73 | $185.19 | +$86.45 | — |
PR primm | Troyavg 72¢ | $109.16 | $21.23 | -$87.93 | 46% 1041-1242 (2283) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | James Madisonavg 83¢ | $16.6 | $17.2 | +$0.6 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Troyavg 17¢ | $3.4 | $2.8 | -$0.6 | 50% 6913-6903 (13816) |
Invested
$520.6
Value
$872.75
PnL
+$352.14
Record
53%
49-44 (93)
Invested
$767.24
Value
$626.83
PnL
-$140.41
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,032.72
Value
$438.73
PnL
-$355.88
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$98.73
Value
$185.19
PnL
+$86.45
Record
—
Invested
$109.16
Value
$21.23
PnL
-$87.93
Record
46%
1041-1242 (2283)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$17.2
PnL
+$0.6
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
6913-6903 (13816)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.