Spread: James Madison (-23.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (50%) · James Madison at 53¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
6
James Madison 50%
$5.0K
$160.73
51¢ → 52.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | James Madisonavg 48.9¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$5.42 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | James Madisonavg 54¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$280 | 59% 30246-20951 (51197) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Troyavg 51¢ | $500 | $382.35 | -$117.65 | — |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Troyavg 62¢ | $20.46 | $12.87 | -$7.59 | 50% 6908-6896 (13804) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | James Madisonavg 53¢ | $3.65 | $4.2 | +$0.55 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Troyavg 52¢ | $3.64 | $3.64 | +$0 | 46% 1041-1242 (2283) |
RN1Invested
$2,525.45
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$5.42
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Invested
$1,889.95
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$280
Record
59%
30246-20951 (51197)
Invested
$500
Value
$382.35
PnL
-$117.65
Record
—
Invested
$20.46
Value
$12.87
PnL
-$7.59
Record
50%
6908-6896 (13804)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.55
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$3.64
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
1041-1242 (2283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.