Spread: James Madison (-21.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (33%) · James Madison at 50¢ · $547 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
6
James Madison 33%
$546.73
$24.37
48.4¢ → 50¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | James Madisonavg 49¢ | $245 | $250 | +$5 | — |
SU SunflowaRebuildYear | Troyavg 45¢ | $211.5 | $230.3 | +$18.8 | — 4-2 (6) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Troyavg 50¢ | $29.93 | $29.33 | -$0.6 | 50% 3766-3742 (7508) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | James Madisonavg 41¢ | $15.17 | $18.87 | +$0.18 | 54% 2953-2534 (5487) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100 | Troyavg 40.5¢ | $10.53 | $12.74 | +$2.21 | 42% 2220-3022 (5242) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Troyavg 61¢ | $6.71 | $5.48 | -$1.23 | 50% 6911-6901 (13812) |
Invested
$245
Value
$250
PnL
+$5
Record
—
Invested
$211.5
Value
$230.3
PnL
+$18.8
Record
—
4-2 (6)
Invested
$29.93
Value
$29.33
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
3766-3742 (7508)
Invested
$15.17
Value
$18.87
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
2953-2534 (5487)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$2.21
Record
42%
2220-3022 (5242)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$5.48
PnL
-$1.23
Record
50%
6911-6901 (13812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.