Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Troy, while the market favors James Madison (54%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: James Madison (-20.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Troy (75%) · Troy at 46¢ · $297 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Troy
4
Troy 75%
$297.5
$22.9
42.7¢ → 46¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTroy at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors James Madison 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR | Troyavg 41¢ | $118.97 | $133.48 | +$14.51 | 42% 2220-3022 (5242) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Troyavg 43.4¢ | $105.76 | $112.06 | +$6.3 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Troyavg 46¢ | $40.94 | $40.94 | +$0 | 50% 3766-3742 (7508) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | James Madisonavg 47¢ | $8.93 | $11.02 | +$2.09 | 58% 28294-20870 (49164) |
Invested
$118.97
Value
$133.48
PnL
+$14.51
Record
42%
2220-3022 (5242)
Invested
$105.76
Value
$112.06
PnL
+$6.3
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Invested
$40.94
Value
$40.94
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3766-3742 (7508)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$11.02
PnL
+$2.09
Record
58%
28294-20870 (49164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.