Spread: James Madison (-19.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (33%) · James Madison at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
6
James Madison 33%
$1.2K
-$111.73
53.9¢ → 50.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | James Madisonavg 54.1¢ | $939.97 | $602.28 | -$59.19 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Troyavg 49¢ | $493.13 | $447.84 | -$45.29 | 50% 1179-1173 (2352) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Troyavg 50¢ | $58.5 | $52.07 | -$6.44 | 50% 6899-6893 (13792) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Troyavg 49¢ | $29.24 | $29.54 | +$0.3 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | James Madisonavg 50¢ | $26 | $26.26 | +$0.26 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Troyavg 50¢ | $12.5 | $11.13 | -$1.38 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$939.97
Value
$602.28
PnL
-$59.19
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$493.13
Value
$447.84
PnL
-$45.29
Record
50%
1179-1173 (2352)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$52.07
PnL
-$6.44
Record
50%
6899-6893 (13792)
Invested
$29.24
Value
$29.54
PnL
+$0.3
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
Invested
$26
Value
$26.26
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$11.13
PnL
-$1.38
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.