Spread: James Madison (-18.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (83%) · James Madison at 73¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
6
James Madison 83%
$6.5K
$1.6K
46.8¢ → 72.5¢
+55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | James Madisonavg 48¢ | $1.9K | $2.8K | +$918.49 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
 0xheavy888 | James Madisonavg 46¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$229.22 | 55% 7001-5619 (12620) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | James Madisonavg 46¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$481.55 | 54% 4827-4066 (8893) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | James Madisonavg 49¢ | $112.67 | $119.64 | +$6.97 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Troyavg 48¢ | $52.32 | $52.32 | +$0.55 | 54% 2951-2534 (5485) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | James Madisonavg 49¢ | $27.82 | $29.54 | +$1.72 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,920
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$918.49
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,757.34
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$229.22
Record
55%
7001-5619 (12620)
Invested
$1,080.54
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$481.55
Record
54%
4827-4066 (8893)
Invested
$112.67
Value
$119.64
PnL
+$6.97
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
Invested
$52.32
Value
$52.32
PnL
+$0.55
Record
54%
2951-2534 (5485)
Invested
$27.82
Value
$29.54
PnL
+$1.72
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.