Spread: James Madison (-17.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (20%) · James Madison at 55¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
5
James Madison 20%
$5.7K
$0.74
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | James Madisonavg 55¢ | $3.1K | $3.3K | +$199.36 | 50% 5791-5900 (11691) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Troyavg 45¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$160.61 | 54% 16927-14186 (31113) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Troyavg 45¢ | $450 | $406.99 | -$34.13 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Troyavg 45¢ | $48.2 | $44.45 | -$3.75 | 50% 32976-32521 (65497) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Troyavg 45¢ | $1.72 | $1.58 | -$0.13 | 54% 2940-2516 (5456) |
Invested
$3,132.8
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$199.36
Record
50%
5791-5900 (11691)
Invested
$2,065
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$160.61
Record
54%
16927-14186 (31113)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$450
Value
$406.99
PnL
-$34.13
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$48.2
Value
$44.45
PnL
-$3.75
Record
50%
32976-32521 (65497)
Invested
$1.72
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$0.13
Record
54%
2940-2516 (5456)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.