Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold James Madison, while the market favors Troy (67%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: James Madison (-13.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (100%) · James Madison at 33¢ · $194 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
James Madison
2
James Madison 100%
$193.55
-$68.21
44.6¢ → 33¢
-26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralJames Madison at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Troy 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | James Madisonavg 42.7¢ | $207.75 | $160.55 | -$47.21 | — |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | James Madisonavg 54¢ | $54 | $33 | -$21 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.