Spread: James Madison (-10.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Troy (100%) · Troy at 79¢ · $325 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Troy
2
Troy 100%
1 arb excluded
$324.69
$10.18
Research grade
NeutralTroy at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | James Madisonavg 36.8¢ | $455.94 | $304.34 | -$151.6 | — |
| └ James Madison leg | James Madisonavg 36.8¢ | $378.61 | $215.81 | -$162.8 | |
| └ Troy leg | Troyavg 69¢ | $77.33 | $88.54 | +$11.21 | |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Troyavg 33¢ | $7.92 | $16.56 | +$8.64 | 50% 6913-6903 (13816) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Troyavg 41¢ | $2.25 | $3.79 | +$1.54 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.