Troy vs. James Madison

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (44%) · James Madison at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Troy2¢James Madison98¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

James Madison

Consensus Traders

James Madison 44%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$255.41

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 97.8¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJames Madison at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Troy2%

James Madison98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

James Madison4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL+$55.82

Troy5 traders

Total Value$287.05

Total Shares5,630

Combined PnL-$311.23

James Madison — 44%Troy — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on James Madison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on James Madison) and the top 1000 (9 on Troy) disagree here.

whaleJames Madison 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpJames Madison 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTroy 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJames Madison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Troy 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	James Madisonavg 93.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.74	52% 13692-12503 (26195)
BI BillBenter2026	James Madisonavg 92.8¢	$493.7	$520.03	+$26.33	58% 18530-13607 (32137)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Troyavg 8¢	$237.5	$213.75	-$74.22	49% 3911-4107 (8018)
13 13897651	James Madisonavg 92.1¢	$163.45	$173.46	+$10.01	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
0xheavy888<$100	James Madisonavg 89¢	$43	$42.01	+$3.74	55% 7008-5622 (12630)
AV averagejoetradersCTR	Troyavg 12.8¢	$154	$27.14	-$126.25	57% 525-404 (929)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Troyavg 12¢	$132	$24.75	-$106.7	52% 382-349 (731)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Troyavg 8¢	$15.46	$19.53	+$4.07	51% 3916-3831 (7747)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Troyavg 12¢	$10	$1.88	-$8.12	67% 23228-11641 (34869)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

James Madison

Invested

$1,578.47

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.74

Record

52%

13692-12503 (26195)

BillBenter2026

James Madison

Invested

$493.7

Value

$520.03

PnL

+$26.33

Record

58%

18530-13607 (32137)

NotradecopyCTR

Troy

Invested

$237.5

Value

$213.75

PnL

-$74.22

Record

49%

3911-4107 (8018)

13897651

James Madison

Invested

$163.45

Value

$173.46

PnL

+$10.01

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

0xheavy888<$100

James Madison

Invested

$43

Value

$42.01

PnL

+$3.74

Record

55%

7008-5622 (12630)

averagejoetradersCTR

Troy

Invested

$154

Value

$27.14

PnL

-$126.25

Record

57%

525-404 (929)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Troy

Invested

$132

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$106.7

Record

52%

382-349 (731)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Troy

Invested

$15.46

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$4.07

Record

51%

3916-3831 (7747)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Troy

Invested

$10

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$8.12

Record

67%

23228-11641 (34869)

Research grade

NeutralJames Madison at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on James Madison. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on James Madison) and the top 1000 (9 on Troy) disagree here.

whaleJames Madison 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpJames Madison 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTroy 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJames Madison 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Troy 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that James Madison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.