Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tennessee, while the market favors Texas A&M (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Tennessee (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tennessee (38%) · Tennessee at 50¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 14

Tennessee50¢Texas A&M50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Tennessee 38%

Total Value

$43.2K

Combined PnL

$230.34

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Texas A&M 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tennessee50%

Texas A&M51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tennessee3 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares44,829

Combined PnL+$434.89

Texas A&M5 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares41,176

Combined PnL-$204.56

Tennessee — 38%Texas A&M — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTennessee 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Texas A&M 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Tennesseeavg 48.5¢	$21.3K	$21.8K	+$428.28	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
BA bands1	Texas A&Mavg 51.5¢	$20.6K	$20.4K	-$200	51% 352-339 (691)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Tennesseeavg 49¢	$332.26	$335.65	+$3.39	25% 350-1027 (1377)
38 38791873984189	Texas A&Mavg 51.7¢	$581.98	$303.19	-$1.5	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
nigiri99	Texas A&Mavg 51¢	$245.82	$243.41	-$2.41	51% 568-535 (1103)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Tennesseeavg 47¢	$75.67	$78.89	+$3.22	48% 301-330 (631)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texas A&Mavg 51.5¢	$48.9	$48.45	-$0.45	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
GH ghorrock<$100	Texas A&Mavg 52¢	$5.24	$5.04	-$0.2	53% 1811-1610 (3421)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Tennessee

Invested

$21,346.86

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$428.28

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

bands1

Texas A&M

Invested

$20,600

Value

$20.4K

PnL

-$200

Record

51%

352-339 (691)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Tennessee

Invested

$332.26

Value

$335.65

PnL

+$3.39

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

38791873984189

Texas A&M

Invested

$581.98

Value

$303.19

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

nigiri99

Texas A&M

Invested

$245.82

Value

$243.41

PnL

-$2.41

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Tennessee

Invested

$75.67

Value

$78.89

PnL

+$3.22

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

Pan9X<$100

Texas A&M

Invested

$48.9

Value

$48.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ghorrock<$100

Texas A&M

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Research grade

NeutralTennessee at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tennessee

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Texas A&M 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTennessee 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Texas A&M 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.