Temple vs. East Carolina: O/U 51.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 78¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$6.85

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 78¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares9,474

Combined PnL-$6.85

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,240

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$3.5K	$4.5K	-$34.65	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
BA BayupatiCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0	51% 227-222 (449)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$22	54% 4896-4121 (9017)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 50¢	$91.5	$118.95	+$27.45	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$77.3	$98.15	+$20.85	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$6.5	+$1.5	51% 1460-1410 (2870)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,465

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$34.65

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

BayupatiCTR

Over

Invested

$2,077.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

227-222 (449)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$1,122

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$22

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$91.5

Value

$118.95

PnL

+$27.45

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$77.3

Value

$98.15

PnL

+$20.85

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.