Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Temple, while the market favors East Carolina (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Temple vs. East Carolina
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Temple (67%) · Temple at 38¢ · $969 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Temple
6
Temple 67%
$968.6
-$7.42
36¢ → 37.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTemple at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors East Carolina 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerdoniaCTR | Templeavg 36¢ | $568.75 | $561.75 | -$7 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
SE sentrio | East Carolinaavg 64¢ | $236.02 | $237.86 | +$1.84 | 50% 24920-24613 (49533) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Templeavg 36¢ | $155.26 | $153.1 | -$2.16 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | East Carolinaavg 63¢ | $13.23 | $13.13 | -$0.11 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Templeavg 36¢ | $1.69 | $1.66 | -$0.02 | 57% 13805-10579 (24384) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Templeavg 35¢ | $1.08 | $1.09 | +$0.02 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
Invested
$568.75
Value
$561.75
PnL
-$7
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
Invested
$236.02
Value
$237.86
PnL
+$1.84
Record
50%
24920-24613 (49533)
Invested
$155.26
Value
$153.1
PnL
-$2.16
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$13.23
Value
$13.13
PnL
-$0.11
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$1.66
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
13805-10579 (24384)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.02
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.