Tarleton State vs. West Florida

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Tarleton State (60%) · Tarleton State at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Tarleton State>99¢West Florida<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tarleton State

Consensus Traders

Tarleton State 60%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$0.15

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTarleton State at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tarleton State

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tarleton State100%

West Florida0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tarleton State6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,745

Combined PnL+$28.54

West Florida4 traders

Total Value$58.17

Total Shares1,263

Combined PnL-$28.69

Tarleton State — 60%West Florida — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Tarleton State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWest Florida 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Tarleton State 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Tarleton Stateavg 98.9¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$13.15	70% 74-32 (106)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Tarleton Stateavg 98.1¢	$360.08	$356.92	-$3.15	39% 58-90 (148)
FO Forecastication2	Tarleton Stateavg 87¢	$131.37	$148.13	+$16.76	45% 270-324 (594)
TH thirdt1me	Tarleton Stateavg 95.8¢	$127.35	$130.47	+$3.12	48% 287-306 (593)
NO NotJump	Tarleton Stateavg 50¢	$105	$111.41	+$6.41	52% 895-837 (1732)
PA Pan9X	Tarleton Stateavg 95.8¢	$288.26	$56.87	-$7.74	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
GA gagarin59CTR<$100	West Floridaavg 13¢	$79.4	$48.86	-$30.54	41% 64-92 (156)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	West Floridaavg 1¢	$6.4	$8.96	+$2.56	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	West Floridaavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.19	-$0.61	55% 761-612 (1373)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	West Floridaavg 13¢	$0.26	$0.16	-$0.1	53% 1867-1658 (3525)

pagliacci4

Tarleton State

Invested

$2,934.08

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$13.15

Record

70%

74-32 (106)

0xfFFF6537

Tarleton State

Invested

$360.08

Value

$356.92

PnL

-$3.15

Record

39%

58-90 (148)

Forecastication2

Tarleton State

Invested

$131.37

Value

$148.13

PnL

+$16.76

Record

45%

270-324 (594)

thirdt1me

Tarleton State

Invested

$127.35

Value

$130.47

PnL

+$3.12

Record

48%

287-306 (593)

NotJump

Tarleton State

Invested

$105

Value

$111.41

PnL

+$6.41

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

Pan9X

Tarleton State

Invested

$288.26

Value

$56.87

PnL

-$7.74

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

gagarin59CTR<$100

West Florida

Invested

$79.4

Value

$48.86

PnL

-$30.54

Record

41%

64-92 (156)

38791873984189CTR<$100

West Florida

Invested

$6.4

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

West Florida

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.61

Record

55%

761-612 (1373)

ghorrockCTR<$100

West Florida

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralTarleton State at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Tarleton State

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Tarleton State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWest Florida 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Tarleton State 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tarleton State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.