Spread: Syracuse (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Syracuse (33%) · Syracuse at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Syracuse54¢NC State46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Syracuse

Consensus Traders

Syracuse 33%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$7.73

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSyracuse at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Syracuse

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Syracuse54%

NC State47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Syracuse3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,225

Combined PnL+$5.95

NC State6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,342

Combined PnL+$1.78

Syracuse — 33%NC State — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Syracuse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSyracuse 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000NC State 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Syracuseavg 52.8¢	$980.06	$984.21	+$4.15	6% 30-460 (490)
38 38791873984189CTR	NC Stateavg 47.5¢	$385.83	$363.35	+$0.52	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	NC Stateavg 47¢	$276.01	$273.07	-$2.94	1% 3-326 (329)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	NC Stateavg 46¢	$241.06	$241.06	+$0	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Syracuseavg 53¢	$189.74	$191.53	+$1.79	48% 286-304 (590)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	NC Stateavg 45¢	$167.13	$170.84	+$3.71	48% 34-37 (71)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	NC Stateavg 46¢	$44.6	$45.09	+$0.48	37% 353-603 (956)
GH ghorrock<$100	Syracuseavg 53¢	$15.66	$9.2	+$0.01	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	NC Stateavg 46¢	$5.98	$5.98	+$0	54% 286-244 (530)

ic4cream

Syracuse

Invested

$980.06

Value

$984.21

PnL

+$4.15

Record

30-460 (490)

38791873984189CTR

NC State

Invested

$385.83

Value

$363.35

PnL

+$0.52

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

NC State

Invested

$276.01

Value

$273.07

PnL

-$2.94

Record

3-326 (329)

HomeRunHazardCTR

NC State

Invested

$241.06

Value

$241.06

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Syracuse

Invested

$189.74

Value

$191.53

PnL

+$1.79

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

NC State

Invested

$167.13

Value

$170.84

PnL

+$3.71

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

GC-PCTR<$100

NC State

Invested

$44.6

Value

$45.09

PnL

+$0.48

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

ghorrock<$100

Syracuse

Invested

$15.66

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

NC State

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.98

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralSyracuse at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Syracuse

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Syracuse. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSyracuse 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000NC State 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Syracuse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.