Syracuse vs. NC State

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Syracuse (14%) · Syracuse at 56¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Syracuse56¢NC State44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Syracuse

Consensus Traders

Syracuse 14%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$1.29

Research grade

NeutralSyracuse at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Syracuse

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Syracuse56%

NC State44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Syracuse1 trader

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,243

Combined PnL+$41.21

NC State6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,697

Combined PnL-$39.92

Syracuse — 14%NC State — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Syracuseavg 57¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$41.21	50% 2522-2477 (4999)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	NC Stateavg 43¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$25.17	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189CTR	NC Stateavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$12.89	48% 3212-3512 (6724)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	NC Stateavg 43¢	$736.27	$736.27	+$0	1% 3-326 (329)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	NC Stateavg 43¢	$86.43	$85.43	-$1.01	54% 286-244 (530)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	NC Stateavg 43¢	$64.5	$63.75	-$0.75	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	NC Stateavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.5	-$0.1	44% 86-111 (197)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Syracuse

Invested

$4,698.45

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$41.21

Record

50%

2522-2477 (4999)

HomeRunHazardCTR

NC State

Invested

$2,164.92

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$25.17

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189CTR

NC State

Invested

$1,108.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$12.89

Record

48%

3212-3512 (6724)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

NC State

Invested

$736.27

Value

$736.27

PnL

+$0

Record

3-326 (329)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

NC State

Invested

$86.43

Value

$85.43

PnL

-$1.01

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Pan9XCTR<$100

NC State

Invested

$64.5

Value

$63.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

efntrickCTR<$100

NC State

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

86-111 (197)

Research grade

NeutralSyracuse at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Syracuse

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Syracuse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.