Spread: Virginia Tech (-14.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Virginia Tech (50%) · Virginia Tech at 55¢ · $894 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Virginia Tech
4
Virginia Tech 50%
1 arb excluded
$893.91
-$0.14
53¢ → 54.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVirginia Tech at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Virginia Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Virginia Techavg 53¢ | $362.53 | $372.79 | +$10.26 | 50% 2522-2477 (4999) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Stanfordavg 47¢ | $327.52 | $317.16 | -$10.36 | 48% 3212-3512 (6724) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Virginia Techavg 50¢ | $200 | $198 | -$2 | 69% 132-60 (192) |
| └ Virginia Tech leg | Virginia Techavg 50¢ | $100 | $106 | +$6 | |
| └ Stanford leg | Stanfordavg 50¢ | $100 | $92 | -$8 | |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Stanfordavg 47¢ | $4.43 | $4.34 | -$0.09 | 48% 286-304 (590) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Virginia Techavg 53¢ | $1.58 | $1.62 | +$0.04 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
Invested
$362.53
Value
$372.79
PnL
+$10.26
Record
50%
2522-2477 (4999)
Invested
$327.52
Value
$317.16
PnL
-$10.36
Record
48%
3212-3512 (6724)
Invested
$200
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
69%
132-60 (192)
Both legs:
Invested
$4.43
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
286-304 (590)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$1.62
PnL
+$0.04
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.