Stanford vs. Louisville: O/U 61.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 72¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
1 arb excluded
$11.0K
-$52.65
54.1¢ → 71.5¢
+32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 54.1¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | -$67.57 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$0.4 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
LI lightotunnel35CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $935.15 | $945.31 | +$10.17 | 55% 60-49 (109) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $570.01 | $582.68 | +$19 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Underavg 54¢ | $118.26 | $118.26 | +$0 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 54.4¢ | $84.49 | $83.56 | -$0.93 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.4¢ | $61.46 | $61.02 | -$0.44 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $23.03 | $22.54 | -$0.49 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 44.4¢ | $37.41 | $22.77 | -$14.64 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
Invested
$5,782.59
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$67.57
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$3,456.15
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$935.15
Value
$945.31
PnL
+$10.17
Record
55%
60-49 (109)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$570.01
Value
$582.68
PnL
+$19
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$118.26
Value
$118.26
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$84.49
Value
$83.56
PnL
-$0.93
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$37.41
Value
$22.77
PnL
-$14.64
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.