Spread: Louisville (-23.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Stanford (71%) · Stanford at 62¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Louisville39¢Stanford61¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stanford

Consensus Traders

Stanford 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$14.54

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 61.5¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralStanford at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stanford

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Louisville39%

Stanford62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stanford5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,117

Combined PnL-$19.38

Louisville2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,774

Combined PnL+$33.92

Stanford — 71%Louisville — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Stanfordavg 52¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$32.25	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Louisvilleavg 48¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$33.84	54% 604-520 (1124)
GA gagarin59	Stanfordavg 49¢	$245	$257.5	+$12.5	51% 699-666 (1365)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Louisvilleavg 52.7¢	$58.49	$54.52	-$3.97	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
└ Louisville leg	Louisvilleavg 52.7¢	$37.43	$34.44	-$2.99
└ Stanford leg	Stanfordavg 54¢	$21.06	$20.09	-$0.97
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Stanfordavg 51¢	$51	$51.5	+$0.5	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Stanfordavg 52¢	$24.44	$24.21	-$0.23	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
GH ghorrock<$100	Stanfordavg 51¢	$10.44	$10.54	+$0.1	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Louisvilleavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.43	+$0.07	54% 17179-14402 (31581)

Forecastication2

Stanford

Invested

$3,354

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$32.25

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Louisville

Invested

$3,249.12

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33.84

Record

54%

604-520 (1124)

gagarin59

Stanford

Invested

$245

Value

$257.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

699-666 (1365)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Louisville

Invested

$58.49

Value

$54.52

PnL

-$3.97

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Both legs:

Louisville$37.4352.7¢-$2.99

Stanford$21.0654¢-$0.97

UpTheBlues<$100

Stanford

Invested

$51

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Stanford

Invested

$24.44

Value

$24.21

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

ghorrock<$100

Stanford

Invested

$10.44

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Louisville

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Research grade

NeutralStanford at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Stanford

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stanford wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.