Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Louisville, while the market favors Stanford (74%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Louisville (-21.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Louisville (67%) · Louisville at 26¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Louisville
6
Louisville 67%
$3.1K
$40.73
52¢ → 26¢
-50% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLouisville at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Stanford 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Louisvilleavg 52¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$23.47 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Louisvilleavg 52¢ | $381.68 | $378.01 | -$3.67 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
JU justaluckydude | Stanfordavg 51¢ | $154.27 | $222.19 | +$67.92 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Louisvilleavg 52¢ | $64.48 | $63.86 | -$0.62 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Stanfordavg 47.6¢ | $32.35 | $32.97 | +$0.62 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Louisvilleavg 52¢ | $5.72 | $5.67 | -$0.05 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
Invested
$2,440.36
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$23.47
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$381.68
Value
$378.01
PnL
-$3.67
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$154.27
Value
$222.19
PnL
+$67.92
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$64.48
Value
$63.86
PnL
-$0.62
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$32.35
Value
$32.97
PnL
+$0.62
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$5.67
PnL
-$0.05
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.