Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (91%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Southern Miss vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 55.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 9.0¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$2.4K
-$116.83
49.2¢ → 9¢
-82% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 51.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$57.3 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
TO torta.techCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $575.52 | $490.5 | -$85.02 | 63% 8137-4876 (13013) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $67.32 | $69.96 | +$1.98 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $37.8 | $65.45 | +$27.65 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.4¢ | $62.18 | $61.31 | -$0.88 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $64.68 | $60.72 | -$3.3 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
PL pleasent242CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.22 | $2.25 | +$0.03 | 52% 662-603 (1265) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,785.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$57.3
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$575.52
Value
$490.5
PnL
-$85.02
Record
63%
8137-4876 (13013)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$67.32
Value
$69.96
PnL
+$1.98
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$65.45
PnL
+$27.65
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$62.18
Value
$61.31
PnL
-$0.88
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$64.68
Value
$60.72
PnL
-$3.3
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
662-603 (1265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.