Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SMU, while the market favors Syracuse (67%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: SMU (-6.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold SMU (100%) · SMU at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
SMU
2
SMU 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$241.48
35.4¢ → 33¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSMU at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Syracuse 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | SMUavg 32.9¢ | $3.8K | $1.3K | +$2.94 | 52% 5778-5367 (11145) |
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR | SMUavg 44¢ | $488.84 | $244.42 | -$244.42 | 51% 136-130 (266) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | SMUavg 61¢ | $317.11 | $148.3 | -$168.81 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
| └ SMU leg | SMUavg 61¢ | $271.65 | $97.9 | -$173.75 | |
| └ Syracuse leg | Syracuseavg 63.1¢ | $45.46 | $50.4 | +$4.94 |
NooseracCTRInvested
$3,808.22
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$2.94
Record
52%
5778-5367 (11145)
Invested
$488.84
Value
$244.42
PnL
-$244.42
Record
51%
136-130 (266)
Invested
$317.11
Value
$148.3
PnL
-$168.81
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.