SMU vs. Syracuse

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SMU (50%) · SMU at 76¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

SMU76¢Syracuse24¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SMU

Consensus Traders

SMU 50%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$2.74

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSMU at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SMU

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SMU76%

Syracuse25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Syracuse3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,168

Combined PnL-$28.05

SMU3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,125

Combined PnL+$30.79

Syracuse — 50%SMU — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2CTR	Syracuseavg 25¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$34.44	50% 7028-7016 (14044)
AN AnonymousUsername	SMUavg 75¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10.47	74% 6669-2386 (9055)
VeryLucky888	SMUavg 75¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	+$20.16	58% 41846-30383 (72229)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Syracuseavg 24¢	$198.29	$202.42	+$4.13	54% 3356-2905 (6261)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Syracuseavg 24¢	$108.72	$110.99	+$2.27	50% 33353-32915 (66268)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	SMUavg 75¢	$24	$24.16	+$0.16	58% 28668-21156 (49824)

Forecastication2CTR

Syracuse

Invested

$1,722.25

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$34.44

Record

50%

7028-7016 (14044)

AnonymousUsername

SMU

Invested

$1,569.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.47

Record

74%

6669-2386 (9055)

VeryLucky888

SMU

Invested

$2,262.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$20.16

Record

58%

41846-30383 (72229)

HerdoniaCTR

Syracuse

Invested

$198.29

Value

$202.42

PnL

+$4.13

Record

54%

3356-2905 (6261)

SnakeBallCTR

Syracuse

Invested

$108.72

Value

$110.99

PnL

+$2.27

Record

50%

33353-32915 (66268)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

SMU

Invested

$24

Value

$24.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

28668-21156 (49824)

Research grade

NeutralSMU at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

SMU

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SMU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.