Sam Houston vs. Missouri State: O/U 53.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 55¢ · $45 held · ended Oct 28

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$44.61

Combined PnL

$1.68

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$31.68

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$0

Over2 traders

Total Value$12.93

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$1.68

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 55¢	$21.23	$21.23	+$0.19	50% 3682-3663 (7345)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 56¢	$10.64	$10.45	-$0.19	54% 2891-2482 (5373)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$9.45	$9.45	+$0.21	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$2.01	$3.48	+$1.47	57% 13006-9921 (22927)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$21.23

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$10.64

Value

$10.45

PnL

-$0.19

Record

54%

2891-2482 (5373)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.01

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$1.47

Record

57%

13006-9921 (22927)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.