Sam Houston vs. Missouri State: O/U 51.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 51¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$21.2K
$493.4
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 50¢ | $12.0K | $12.5K | +$491.92 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $8.3K | $8.3K | +$0 | 48% 498-531 (1029) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Overavg 51.3¢ | $281.83 | $278.52 | -$3.31 | 54% 2891-2481 (5372) |
 noosh3<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $94 | $95.92 | +$4.8 | 52% 241-219 (460) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $31.5 | $31.5 | +$0 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
Invested
$11,987.04
Value
$12.5K
PnL
+$491.92
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
Invested
$8,300
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
498-531 (1029)
Invested
$281.83
Value
$278.52
PnL
-$3.31
Record
54%
2891-2481 (5372)
noosh3<$100Invested
$94
Value
$95.92
PnL
+$4.8
Record
52%
241-219 (460)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$31.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.