Spread: Missouri State (-5.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (75%) · Sam Houston at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Sam Houston
4
Sam Houston 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$27.29
51.6¢ → 50.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSam Houston at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pltrkr111 | Sam Houstonavg 52¢ | $765.96 | $751.23 | -$22.1 | 54% 708-603 (1311) |
 VeryLucky888 | Sam Houstonavg 51¢ | $517.38 | $505 | -$4.87 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Sam Houstonavg 51¢ | $62.97 | $62.97 | -$0.32 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
| └ Sam Houston leg | Sam Houstonavg 51¢ | $31.62 | $31.62 | +$0 | |
| └ Missouri State leg | Missouri Stateavg 49¢ | $31.35 | $31.35 | -$0.32 | |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Sam Houstonavg 52¢ | $20.8 | $20.4 | -$0.4 | 54% 2890-2478 (5368) |
MA MarkramCTR<$100 | Missouri Stateavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.45 | +$0.07 | 70% 2041-886 (2927) |
Invested
$765.96
Value
$751.23
PnL
-$22.1
Record
54%
708-603 (1311)
VeryLucky888Invested
$517.38
Value
$505
PnL
-$4.87
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Invested
$62.97
Value
$62.97
PnL
-$0.32
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.8
Value
$20.4
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
2890-2478 (5368)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.07
Record
70%
2041-886 (2927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.