Sam Houston vs. Missouri State
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Missouri State (57%) · Missouri State at 71¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Missouri State
7
Missouri State 57%
1 arb excluded
$25.1K
-$43.55
69.6¢ → 70.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMissouri State at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Missouri Stateavg 70¢ | $16.5K | $16.6K | +$69.16 | 50% 1112-1111 (2223) |
 NooseracCTR | Sam Houstonavg 30¢ | $6.9K | $6.7K | -$114.31 | 52% 5695-5264 (10959) |
 VeryLucky888 | Missouri Stateavg 65.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$8.33 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
 noosh3CTR | Sam Houstonavg 35¢ | $122 | $116.79 | -$5.21 | 52% 241-219 (460) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Missouri Stateavg 66¢ | $105.82 | $105.52 | -$0.29 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
| └ Missouri State leg | Missouri Stateavg 66¢ | $83.04 | $82.41 | -$0.63 | |
| └ Sam Houston leg | Sam Houstonavg 34¢ | $22.78 | $23.12 | +$0.33 | |
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Sam Houstonavg 34¢ | $94.69 | $93.3 | -$1.39 | 59% 2599-1830 (4429) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Missouri Stateavg 66¢ | $66 | $65.5 | -$0.5 | 51% 1223-1158 (2381) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Missouri Stateavg 65¢ | $16 | $16.37 | +$0.37 | 57% 12963-9878 (22841) |
Invested
$16,531.52
Value
$16.6K
PnL
+$69.16
Record
50%
1112-1111 (2223)
NooseracCTRInvested
$6,858.43
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$114.31
Record
52%
5695-5264 (10959)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,328.49
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$8.33
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
noosh3CTRInvested
$122
Value
$116.79
PnL
-$5.21
Record
52%
241-219 (460)
Invested
$105.82
Value
$105.52
PnL
-$0.29
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.69
Value
$93.3
PnL
-$1.39
Record
59%
2599-1830 (4429)
Invested
$66
Value
$65.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
51%
1223-1158 (2381)
Invested
$16
Value
$16.37
PnL
+$0.37
Record
57%
12963-9878 (22841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
mooseborzoii
Missouri State — $16.6K
Nooserac
CTRSam Houston — $6.7K
VeryLucky888
Missouri State — $1.3K
noosh3
CTRSam Houston — $116.79
LeLynxMalynx
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ic4cream
CTRSam Houston — $93.3
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Missouri State — $65.5
ghorrock
Missouri State — $16.37