Spread: Air Force (-13.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force (40%) · Air Force at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Air Force56¢San Jose State44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Air Force

Consensus Traders

Air Force 40%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$29.79

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 55.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Air Force56%

San Jose State45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Air Force4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,387

Combined PnL+$29.59

San Jose State6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,441

Combined PnL-$59.38

Air Force — 40%San Jose State — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on San Jose State) and the top 1000 (5 on Air Force) disagree here.

ctrAir Force 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSan Jose State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Air Force 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Air Forceavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
38 38791873984189CTR	San Jose Stateavg 47.8¢	$1.0K	$964.38	-$47.81	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
GM gmpm2	Air Forceavg 51¢	$663.52	$676.16	+$12.64	55% 358-295 (653)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Air Forceavg 54¢	$610.19	$627.14	+$16.95	59% 1137-785 (1922)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	San Jose Stateavg 46.8¢	$265.44	$257.99	-$7.45	47% 339-375 (714)
NM NM-PCTR	San Jose Stateavg 46¢	$161	$159.25	-$1.75	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
GC GC-PCTR	San Jose Stateavg 46¢	$161	$159.25	-$1.75	39% 419-652 (1071)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 46¢	$20.7	$20.48	-$0.22	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Air Forceavg 52¢	$5.24	$5.24	+$0	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 46.8¢	$9.1	$4.21	-$0.39	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Air Force

Invested

$1,012.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

38791873984189CTR

San Jose State

Invested

$1,012.2

Value

$964.38

PnL

-$47.81

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

gmpm2

Air Force

Invested

$663.52

Value

$676.16

PnL

+$12.64

Record

55%

358-295 (653)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Air Force

Invested

$610.19

Value

$627.14

PnL

+$16.95

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

San Jose State

Invested

$265.44

Value

$257.99

PnL

-$7.45

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

NM-PCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$161

Value

$159.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

GC-PCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$161

Value

$159.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

Pan9XCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.48

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrock<$100

Air Force

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$9.1

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.39

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on San Jose State) and the top 1000 (5 on Air Force) disagree here.

ctrAir Force 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSan Jose State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Air Force 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Air Force wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.