San Jose State vs. Air Force

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force (38%) · Air Force at 85¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

San Jose State16¢Air Force84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Air Force

Consensus Traders

Air Force 38%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$148.89

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

San Jose State16%

Air Force85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Air Force3 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares14,311

Combined PnL+$84.29

San Jose State5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares12,743

Combined PnL+$64.6

Air Force — 38%San Jose State — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Air Forceavg 83.9¢	$11.7K	$11.8K	+$81.85	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
HI hi774cCTR	San Jose Stateavg 16¢	$993.48	$1.0K	+$31.05	23% 187-633 (820)
GA gagarin59CTR	San Jose Stateavg 16¢	$988.48	$1.0K	+$30.89	40% 66-99 (165)
HO HomeRunHazard	Air Forceavg 82¢	$180.4	$183.7	+$3.3	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
nigiri99	Air Forceavg 85¢	$146.2	$145.34	-$0.86	52% 602-565 (1167)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 15¢	$26.27	$28.81	+$2.54	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 16¢	$24	$24.75	+$0.75	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	San Jose Stateavg 18¢	$5.65	$5.03	-$0.63	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Air Force

Invested

$11,679.34

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$81.85

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

hi774cCTR

San Jose State

Invested

$993.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$31.05

Record

23%

187-633 (820)

gagarin59CTR

San Jose State

Invested

$988.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30.89

Record

40%

66-99 (165)

HomeRunHazard

Air Force

Invested

$180.4

Value

$183.7

PnL

+$3.3

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

nigiri99

Air Force

Invested

$146.2

Value

$145.34

PnL

-$0.86

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$26.27

Value

$28.81

PnL

+$2.54

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Pan9XCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$24

Value

$24.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

San Jose State

Invested

$5.65

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

NeutralAir Force at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Air Force

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Air Force wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.