South Carolina State vs. Morgan State
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold South Carolina State (57%) · South Carolina State at 98¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
South Carolina State
7
South Carolina State 57%
$9.9K
$1.8K
82.3¢ → 97.5¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSouth Carolina State at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on South Carolina State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | South Carolina Stateavg 82.4¢ | $5.1K | $6.0K | +$937.69 | 54% 1195-1008 (2203) |
MA MastermoneyCTR | Morgan Stateavg 22.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.6K | +$615.4 | 46% 203-236 (439) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | South Carolina State | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$264.06 | — |
0X 0x1111111111<$100 | South Carolina Stateavg 75¢ | $73.5 | $95.6 | +$22.1 | 61% 1757-1106 (2863) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Morgan Stateavg 29¢ | $27.86 | $27.84 | -$0.02 | 50% 6911-6901 (13812) |
 isco22<$100 | South Carolina Stateavg 89¢ | $1 | $1.1 | +$0.1 | 63% 124-73 (197) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Morgan Stateavg 29¢ | $7.25 | $0.61 | -$6.64 | 59% 6704-4682 (11386) |
Invested
$5,107.68
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$937.69
Record
54%
1195-1008 (2203)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$615.4
Record
46%
203-236 (439)
Invested
$1,073.97
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$264.06
Record
—
Invested
$73.5
Value
$95.6
PnL
+$22.1
Record
61%
1757-1106 (2863)
Invested
$27.86
Value
$27.84
PnL
-$0.02
Record
50%
6911-6901 (13812)
isco22<$100Invested
$1
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
63%
124-73 (197)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$0.61
PnL
-$6.64
Record
59%
6704-4682 (11386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
TAIWANNUMBERONE
South Carolina State — $6.0K
Mastermoney
CTRMorgan State — $2.6K
0x0d2d...7ff5
South Carolina State — $1.1K
0x1111111111
South Carolina State — $95.6
Forecastication2
CTRMorgan State — $27.84
isco22
South Carolina State — $1.1
13897651
CTRMorgan State — $0.61