Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oklahoma, while the market favors South Carolina (67%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Oklahoma (-3.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (67%) · Oklahoma at 34¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Oklahoma
6
Oklahoma 67%
$3.1K
-$426.71
50.3¢ → 33.5¢
-33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOklahoma at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors South Carolina 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pleasent242CTR | Oklahomaavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$60 | 52% 662-603 (1265) |
GM gmpm2CTR | Oklahomaavg 49¢ | $477.86 | $477.58 | -$0.28 | 53% 337-299 (636) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Oklahomaavg 49.4¢ | $950.88 | $466.24 | -$366.39 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | South Carolinaavg 49.7¢ | $55.14 | $56.61 | +$0.92 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Oklahomaavg 50¢ | $50 | $49.5 | -$0.5 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | South Carolinaavg 51¢ | $46.41 | $46.41 | -$0.46 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
Invested
$2,040
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$60
Record
52%
662-603 (1265)
Invested
$477.86
Value
$477.58
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
337-299 (636)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$950.88
Value
$466.24
PnL
-$366.39
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$55.14
Value
$56.61
PnL
+$0.92
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$46.41
Value
$46.41
PnL
-$0.46
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.