South Carolina vs. Oklahoma
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma (60%) · Oklahoma at 61¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Oklahoma
5
Oklahoma 60%
$10.8K
-$229.23
63¢ → 60.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOklahoma at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL pleasent242 | Oklahomaavg 62.5¢ | $10.0K | $6.0K | -$199.91 | 52% 661-601 (1262) |
 VeryLucky888 | Oklahomaavg 64¢ | $4.1K | $3.6K | -$185.28 | 58% 41344-29975 (71319) |
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR | South Carolinaavg 33.9¢ | $985.97 | $1.1K | +$155.22 | 60% 871-573 (1444) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | South Carolinaavg 37¢ | $49.21 | $50.54 | +$1.33 | 53% 363-319 (682) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Oklahomaavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $12.2 | -$0.6 | 58% 28294-20870 (49164) |
Invested
$9,999.89
Value
$6.0K
PnL
-$199.91
Record
52%
661-601 (1262)
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,120.87
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$185.28
Record
58%
41344-29975 (71319)
Invested
$985.97
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$155.22
Record
60%
871-573 (1444)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$49.21
Value
$50.54
PnL
+$1.33
Record
53%
363-319 (682)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
28294-20870 (49164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.