Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan: O/U 45.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$5.1K
-$2.5
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MAGATheeStallion | Underavg 55.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$0 | 2% 3-170 (173) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 14% 75-471 (546) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $528.44 | $528.44 | +$0 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $440 | $440 | +$0 | 51% 446-422 (868) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $44 | $41.5 | -$2.5 | 67% 1645-796 (2441) |
Invested
$2,999.36
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
2%
3-170 (173)
Invested
$1,123.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
14%
75-471 (546)
Invested
$528.44
Value
$528.44
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$440
Value
$440
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
446-422 (868)
Invested
$44
Value
$41.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
67%
1645-796 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.