Sacramento State vs. Central Michigan: O/U 41.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 55¢ · $615 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$615.04
$0.1
56¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 56¢ | $338.15 | $329.09 | -$9.06 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $265.69 | $274.75 | +$9.06 | 31% 380-865 (1245) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $6.12 | $6.12 | -$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.81 | $2.81 | -$0 | 43% 2560-3355 (5915) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $2.17 | $2.28 | +$0.1 | 52% 14-13 (27) |
Invested
$338.15
Value
$329.09
PnL
-$9.06
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$265.69
Value
$274.75
PnL
+$9.06
Record
31%
380-865 (1245)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6.12
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.81
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
2560-3355 (5915)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
14-13 (27)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.