Spread: Central Michigan (-7.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (40%) · Central Michigan at 73¢ · $982 held · ends Nov 12

Central Michigan73¢Sacramento State27¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 40%

Total Value

$982.34

Combined PnL

-$0.16

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 72.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan73%

Sacramento State28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan2 traders

Total Value$706.75

Total Shares962

Combined PnL+$14.42

Sacramento State3 traders

Total Value$275.59

Total Shares1,036

Combined PnL-$14.58

Central Michigan — 40%Sacramento State — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Central Michiganavg 72¢	$682.65	$696.87	+$14.22	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 28¢	$210.76	$199.47	-$11.29	31% 373-839 (1212)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 28¢	$52.42	$49.61	-$2.81	30% 369-862 (1231)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 28¢	$26.99	$26.51	-$0.48	30% 368-861 (1229)
GH ghorrock<$100	Central Michiganavg 72¢	$9.68	$9.88	+$0.2	54% 553-471 (1024)

38791873984189

Central Michigan

Invested

$682.65

Value

$696.87

PnL

+$14.22

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

MadridTimeCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$210.76

Value

$199.47

PnL

-$11.29

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

LimousinCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$52.42

Value

$49.61

PnL

-$2.81

Record

30%

369-862 (1231)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$26.99

Value

$26.51

PnL

-$0.48

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

ghorrock<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.