Spread: Central Michigan (-27.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (56%) · Sacramento State at 66¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan34¢Sacramento State66¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sacramento State

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$61.12

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 66¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan34%

Sacramento State66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State5 traders

Total Value$643.73

Total Shares961

Combined PnL-$49.21

Central Michigan4 traders

Total Value$487.18

Total Shares1,376

Combined PnL+$110.33

Sacramento State — 56%Central Michigan — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCentral Michigan 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sacramento State 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Sacramento Stateavg 73.9¢	$489.68	$443.67	-$46.01	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Central Michiganavg 26.3¢	$244.77	$335.26	+$90.49	31% 412-918 (1330)
65 6512395314597884	Sacramento Stateavg 68¢	$136	$134	-$2	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
PR primmCTR<$100	Central Michiganavg 32¢	$76.8	$86.4	+$9.6	61% 870-566 (1436)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Central Michiganavg 27¢	$41.78	$49.52	+$7.74	31% 410-923 (1333)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 67.6¢	$47.3	$46.9	-$0.4	49% 692-733 (1425)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Central Michiganavg 27¢	$13.5	$16	+$2.5	30% 401-920 (1321)
RN1<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 67¢	$10.15	$10.15	-$0	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
GH ghorrock<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 73¢	$9.81	$9	-$0.81	55% 680-552 (1232)

38791873984189

Sacramento State

Invested

$489.68

Value

$443.67

PnL

-$46.01

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

LightParadoxCTR

Central Michigan

Invested

$244.77

Value

$335.26

PnL

+$90.49

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

6512395314597884

Sacramento State

Invested

$136

Value

$134

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

primmCTR<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$76.8

Value

$86.4

PnL

+$9.6

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

VenusianCTR<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$41.78

Value

$49.52

PnL

+$7.74

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

Pan9X<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$47.3

Value

$46.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

LimousinCTR<$100

Central Michigan

Invested

$13.5

Value

$16

PnL

+$2.5

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

RN1<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

ghorrock<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$9.81

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCentral Michigan 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sacramento State 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.