Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Central Michigan, while the market favors Sacramento State (55%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Central Michigan (-18.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (20%) · Central Michigan at 46¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Central Michigan
5
Central Michigan 20%
$9.2K
-$52.42
Research grade
NeutralCentral Michigan at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35CTR | Central Michiganavg 46¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$52.42 | 7% 4-53 (57) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Sacramento Stateavg 54¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | -$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
SN SnakeBall | Sacramento Stateavg 54¢ | $351.06 | $351.06 | +$0 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 54¢ | $63.33 | $63.33 | +$0 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 54¢ | $7.26 | $7.26 | +$0 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
Invested
$4,822.19
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$52.42
Record
7%
4-53 (57)
Invested
$4,054.7
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$351.06
Value
$351.06
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$63.33
Value
$63.33
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
Invested
$7.26
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.