Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Central Michigan, while the market favors Sacramento State (53%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Central Michigan (-17.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (67%) · Central Michigan at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Central Michigan
3
Central Michigan 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$0.78
Research grade
NeutralCentral Michigan at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 49¢ | $979.77 | $994.69 | +$14.92 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
| └ Sacramento State leg | Sacramento Stateavg 49¢ | $546.9 | $574.8 | +$27.9 | |
| └ Central Michigan leg | Central Michiganavg 50¢ | $432.87 | $419.88 | -$12.99 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $589.52 | +$3.04 | 53% 1801-1611 (3412) |
| └ Sacramento State leg | Sacramento Stateavg 50¢ | $432.87 | $454.51 | +$21.64 | |
| └ Central Michigan leg | Central Michiganavg 51¢ | $144.95 | $135 | -$18.61 | |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Central Michiganavg 50¢ | $50 | $48.5 | -$1.5 | 67% 1645-796 (2441) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 49.1¢ | $8.88 | $9.5 | +$0.62 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Central Michiganavg 51¢ | $9.17 | $9.26 | +$0.09 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
Invested
$979.77
Value
$994.69
PnL
+$14.92
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,019.35
Value
$589.52
PnL
+$3.04
Record
53%
1801-1611 (3412)
Both legs:
Invested
$50
Value
$48.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
67%
1645-796 (2441)
Invested
$8.88
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0.62
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$9.17
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.