Spread: Central Michigan (-16.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (33%) · Central Michigan at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Central Michigan
6
Central Michigan 33%
$9.2K
-$30.55
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCentral Michigan at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Central Michiganavg 53¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$45.45 | 7% 4-53 (57) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Sacramento Stateavg 47¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$0 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Sacramento Stateavg 47¢ | $432.79 | $432.79 | +$0 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sacramento Stateavg 47¢ | $470 | $327.01 | +$6.56 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Sacramento Stateavg 45¢ | $186.09 | $194.36 | +$8.27 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Central Michiganavg 52¢ | $6.99 | $7.06 | +$0.07 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
Invested
$4,896.97
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$45.45
Record
7%
4-53 (57)
Invested
$3,410.6
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$432.79
Value
$432.79
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$470
Value
$327.01
PnL
+$6.56
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$186.09
Value
$194.36
PnL
+$8.27
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$7.06
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.