Spread: Central Michigan (-14.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Central Michigan (25%) · Central Michigan at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Central Michigan69¢Sacramento State31¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Central Michigan

Consensus Traders

Central Michigan 25%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$79.84

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 69¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Central Michigan69%

Sacramento State31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Central Michigan2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,352

Combined PnL+$210.01

Sacramento State6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,157

Combined PnL-$289.84

Central Michigan — 25%Sacramento State — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSacramento State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Central Michiganavg 56¢	$844.83	$986.37	+$141.55	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
PR primm	Central Michiganavg 62¢	$527.94	$596.4	+$68.46	61% 870-566 (1436)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 44¢	$684.2	$466.5	-$217.7	31% 412-918 (1330)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 44¢	$323.65	$279.51	-$44.13	47% 299-342 (641)
RN1CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 38¢	$304.76	$276.69	-$28.07	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 40.2¢	$32.3	$12.65	+$2.05	49% 692-733 (1425)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 38¢	$12.8	$11.62	-$1.18	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 44¢	$5.91	$5.11	-$0.81	55% 680-552 (1232)

38791873984189

Central Michigan

Invested

$844.83

Value

$986.37

PnL

+$141.55

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

primm

Central Michigan

Invested

$527.94

Value

$596.4

PnL

+$68.46

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

LightParadoxCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$684.2

Value

$466.5

PnL

-$217.7

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

SnakeBallCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$323.65

Value

$279.51

PnL

-$44.13

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

RN1CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$304.76

Value

$276.69

PnL

-$28.07

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$32.3

Value

$12.65

PnL

+$2.05

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$12.8

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$1.18

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.81

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Research grade

NeutralCentral Michigan at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Central Michigan

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Central Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSacramento State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Central Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.