Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sacramento State, while the market favors Central Michigan (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Central Michigan (-13.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (60%) · Sacramento State at 25¢ · $567 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Sacramento State
5
Sacramento State 60%
1 arb excluded
$567.02
-$12.97
Research grade
AvoidSacramento State at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Central Michigan 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Central Michiganavg 61¢ | $488.87 | $488.87 | -$0 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
| └ Central Michigan leg | Central Michiganavg 61¢ | $245.38 | $245.38 | -$0 | |
| └ Sacramento State leg | Sacramento Stateavg 39¢ | $243.49 | $243.49 | -$0 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 39¢ | $34.49 | $22.55 | -$11.94 | 31% 410-923 (1333) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 39¢ | $21.45 | $21.45 | -$0 | 31% 412-918 (1330) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Central Michiganavg 61¢ | $18.16 | $18.93 | +$0.77 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Central Michiganavg 61¢ | $23.65 | $10 | -$0 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 39¢ | $7.02 | $5.22 | -$1.8 | 30% 401-920 (1321) |
Invested
$488.87
Value
$488.87
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.49
Value
$22.55
PnL
-$11.94
Record
31%
410-923 (1333)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$21.45
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
412-918 (1330)
Invested
$18.16
Value
$18.93
PnL
+$0.77
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$23.65
Value
$10
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$5.22
PnL
-$1.8
Record
30%
401-920 (1321)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.