Rutgers vs. Wisconsin: O/U 45.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 51¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
1 arb excluded
$14.2K
$17.04
50.6¢ → 50.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Underavg 50.7¢ | $6.3K | $6.2K | +$62.6 | 53% 667-585 (1252) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$31.84 | 54% 18479-15550 (34029) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$19.36 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
PL pltrkr111 | Underavg 50¢ | $1,000 | $999.17 | +$9.16 | 55% 790-658 (1448) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 49.7¢ | $503.51 | $307.28 | +$0.77 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.7¢ | $230.02 | $229.31 | -$0.03 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $77.19 | $77.97 | +$0.8 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $175 | $173.25 | -$1.75 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
GC GC-PCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $174.46 | $172.72 | -$1.74 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.03 | 50% 8436-8484 (16920) |
Invested
$6,300.79
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$62.6
Record
53%
667-585 (1252)
Invested
$4,477.69
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$31.84
Record
54%
18479-15550 (34029)
Invested
$1,935.79
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$19.36
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$999.17
PnL
+$9.16
Record
55%
790-658 (1448)
Invested
$503.51
Value
$307.28
PnL
+$0.77
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Both legs:
Invested
$175
Value
$173.25
PnL
-$1.75
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$174.46
Value
$172.72
PnL
-$1.74
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
8436-8484 (16920)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.