Rhode Island vs. Temple

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Temple (67%) · Temple at 85¢ · $473 held · ended Sep 5

Rhode Island15¢Temple85¢Ended Sat, Sep 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Temple

Consensus Traders

Temple 67%

Total Value

$473.19

Combined PnL

$358.21

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 85¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTemple at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Temple

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rhode Island15%

Temple85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Temple4 traders

Total Value$441.21

Total Shares459

Combined PnL+$356.3

Rhode Island2 traders

Total Value$31.98

Total Shares213

Combined PnL+$1.91

Temple — 67%Rhode Island — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Temple. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTemple 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTemple 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTemple 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTemple 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Temple 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Templeavg 87.9¢	$367.06	$282.33	+$204.02	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Templeavg 82.1¢	$445.3	$90.49	+$141.55	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PA Pan9X<$100	Templeavg 83.5¢	$90.35	$58.39	+$11.07	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Rhode Islandavg 14¢	$29.6	$31.71	+$2.11	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
PT PT-S7<$100	Templeavg 85¢	$10.34	$10	-$0.34	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Rhode Islandavg 11.5¢	$0.21	$0.27	-$0.2	57% 676-519 (1195)

RN1

Temple

Invested

$367.06

Value

$282.33

PnL

+$204.02

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Temple

Invested

$445.3

Value

$90.49

PnL

+$141.55

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Pan9X<$100

Temple

Invested

$90.35

Value

$58.39

PnL

+$11.07

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Rhode Island

Invested

$29.6

Value

$31.71

PnL

+$2.11

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

PT-S7<$100

Temple

Invested

$10.34

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Rhode Island

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

Research grade

NeutralTemple at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Temple

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Temple. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTemple 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTemple 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTemple 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTemple 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Temple 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Temple wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.